Chapter 2: Research Aims and Objectives
The following below are the objectives of the research:
Objective # 1: To measure the impact of the dividends on the UK based companies stock prices.
This research objective is most vital for this research, as measuring the impact will provide the information about the strength and importance of the dividend and its related policy. This is a widely researched subject matter in the field of corporate finance and investment. However, until present no research could provide an evidence of whether the dividend policy affects the stock prices of UK industries or not. Therefore, by measuring the impact through evaluating a large amount of data (20 years) using a quantitative approach, the researcher will be able to discover the impact of dividend policy on the stock prices.
Objective # 2: To examine the finance market reaction to the stock dividend policy of 30 UK companies from 2007 to 2014.
The market reaction to dividend policy is interlinked with the effect of the dividend on the stock prices of the market, which is one of the most controversial issues in the field of finance and investment. This market returns study of the dividend should consider both the tax effects, and information issues. Moreover, in order to find the tax effects and information issues, it must examine the market reactions towards the announcements of dividend policy change.
Objective # 3: To discover the existence or non-existence of the long- term signalling effect of stock dividend
The dividend decision may provide signalling effect that organisations will consider in formulating their policy. Previous researches (Salih, 2010); (Amihud and Murgia., 1997) suggest that dividend signalling does exist when organisations either increase or decrease the amount of dividend payment. However, there is very little evidence present on the existence of the long-term signalling effect of stock dividend. Therefore, this research is going to discover the existence or non-existence of the long-term signalling effect of stock dividend.
Objective # 4: To evaluate the relationship between Dividend Policy & Stock Price of 30 UK based companies listed in London Stock Exchange (FTSE 100) from 2007 to 2014.
Many previous researches (Ali & Chowdhury., 2010; Amihud & Murgia., 1997; Dasilas & Leventis, 2011) those evaluated the association between the dividend policy and stock price but their findings are not consistent. Some of the researches indicate that there is a negative relation in both variables (Ali & Chowdhury., 2010), while other studies indicate no consensus between these variables. This research includes large data for determining the relationship between the dividend policy and stock prices of companies. This research takes into consideration around 30 UK based organisations from different sectors and the data is ranging from 1994 to 2014 (20 years).
Objective # 5: To provide evidence about the effects of the dividend policy on stock prices in the UK
Objective # 6: To review the dividend policy followed by the UK based companies
The research objectives # 5 and 6 provide the in-depth information and understanding regarding the existence or non-existence of the long- term signalling effect of stock dividends on the UK common stock price of companies and the financial market reaction to the stock dividend policy.
The next chapter of the study presents a critical literature review of the current research in order to draw a suitable framework for the primary investigation.
Chapter 3: Literature Review
3.1 Introduction
In this chapter of the research, the critical analysis of the past studies is given to view the already studied relationship between the dividends and stock prices of the firms. Most of the authors in their studies have widely recognised the role of dividend in influencing the stock prices of the companies. It is highly controversial in debates that by changing the dividend policies, firms are capable of affecting their stock prices and market reputations in front of the stakeholders. The review of these past findings could help in clarifying the understanding about the tax and information aspects related with firms’ dividends. The information can then be applied on the primary sample of the current investigation to analyse the impacts of dividends on the UK stock prices from 2007 to 2014. Furthermore, past studies findings help in understanding the long-term significance of signalling effects of the dividend matters on the fluctuations in the stock prices of the UK firms.Prior to moving towards the review of such relationships discussed in past studies, it is recognised as highly necessary to develop a strong theoretical framework discussing critically all the relevant theories related with the under discussion subject matter and thereview of the basic definitions, classifications, importance and models of dividend and stock prices. An overview of the tax system of United Kingdom is also included in the chapter in order to develop a strong secondary study framework for the primary investigation in the study.
3.2 Theoretical Framework
3.2.1 Dividends
Dividend is recognised asone of the vital part of the financial aspects appearing in the balance sheet of the companies. Literature has widely defined it as a part of retained earnings ready to be distributed to the shareholders of the firm. Hashemijoo et al., (2012)argued that dividend policy matters are related with the firms’ capital structuring decisions. The concludethat companies decide about the payment of dividends based on their value of stock price in the market. According to Miller & Rock., (1985), the decision about the dividend matters is solely the responsibility of the board of directors of the firms. They state that the increase and decrease in the dividend policies made by the business management is taken as a prospective indicator of the companies’ performance in front of the market analysts and investors. They regard the value of dividends in influencing the flow of business stock prices.
As far as the ways using which the business management determines the dividends, numerous authors have studied and discussed different ways (Asquith & Mullins, 2003; Guay & Harford, 2000; Miller & Rock., 1985). Most of the studies discussed the dividends’ measurement through the classification of the different types of dividends. They classify it mainly into preferred dividends and common dividends. Guay & Harford, (2000) definepreferred dividends as the one which is determined through a fixed rate while the common dividend is defined as the one determined by the variable rate. This variable rate is dependent on the latest revenue figures of the business corporations.
Additionally, Goulder, (1995)highlights on the use of cash and non-cash based payment forms used by the companies to pay their dividends. Goulder, (1995)adds that those firms who do not want to offer their dividends in the form of cash go for the issuance of extra shareholder’s equity. Additional shares are issued to the shareholders in order to increase the portion of their investment in the business. This enables retention of funds that can be re-invested in the business within the real market activities. Dividendsare of significance toinvestors, policy makers, lenders and managers. All of them use the value of dividend yield to predict the future fluctuations in the figure in market. Ohlson, (1995)has showed that such predictions have great influence over the stock assessment. Likewise,according to author the variability in the stock prices also influence the dividend policy matters. Based on the precise overview of the dividend and its policies, it can be analysed that the whole market reaction is associated with the change in the dividend policy matters.Hashemijoo et al., (2012)have also stated that importance of dividend policy cannot beundermined in the current period where the firms have been using their dividends’ policy for addressing the ways used to attract the investors in different tax brackets. These values also help in increasing the market value of the companies and assist them in pursuing the shareholders to go for the share repurchase rather than going for the cash dividends.The authors of past studies have stated that dividend is a vital component of balance sheet but is not promised by the companies. The firms in the timesof distress often avoid the payment of dividends to their shareholders.
3.2.2 Common Stock Price
Another key variable in the study is common stock prices of the firms. Lucas & McDonald, (1990) define stock price as the prices of stocks that can help the investors in deciding about the investment into the business. The firms use the advertisements to decide about the initial prices offerings of their stocks when the shares of the corporation are issued. The information is made public to the people.
Accounting literature has categorised the stock into two major types’i.e. common stock and preferred stock. According to Khan, (2012),common stocks are the kind of stocks that offers real ownership claims to the owners of the share. In other words, the holder of common stock in the firm is likely to become chief beneficiary as well as chief losers. On the other hand, preferred stock holders are the ones that have higher claims on the company’s assets and its earning relative to the common stock. Such higher claim can be attributed to the characteristics of the debt and equity claims both. Wright, (2015) further added that upon bankruptcy the preferred shareholders gain priority claims on remaining assets, however the amount of dividend paid to the preferred shareholders is smaller as compared to the common stockholders.
The investors consider the stock prices of common stocksin order to predict the performance of the business. Chan, (2003)points out towards some factors affecting the change in stock prices. These include business expansion,market change, and economic estimate and others. Any relevant information can also place significant impact on the business.Numerous models are used by the authors in past studies for calculating and predicting the stock prices of the firms’ shares. Some of these include After-tax Capital Asset Pricing Model by Brenan cited in (Ramaswamy, 1982; Campbell & Thompson, 2008).
After assessing the basic description of the dividend and stock prices from the perspective of different authors, the next section of literature discusses theories underlying the research.
3.2.3 Theories Underlying Current Research
3.2.3.1 Miller and Modigliani (1961) (MM) Theory
One of the important theoriesis related with the MM theory proposed by Miller and Modigliani (1961). The theory offers a way to examine how the relationship exists between dividend policy of a firm and the stock prices of the companies in the sense of modern finance. According to their theory,there are three key assumptions underlying their analysis of the relationship between the research variables. These include perfect market, rationale behaviour and perfect certainty. The variable of the Perfect certainty refers to investors have completely curtained information about the future investment plans and future earnings and so on of the company. Second variable of perfect market in their study is defined as the set of certain assumptions including the presence of a large number of investors in the market, and any trader (including the issuer). These do not affect the prices of the securities through their own behaviours. Secondly, perfect market further assumes that all investors are able to obtain fairly information related to the price of securities and features about other aspects of securities with no cost. The third assumption figures out that there is no commission, transaction tax or other transaction costs in trading or issuance of securities. Lastly, in the perfect market no difference appears between dividends and capital gains in terms of tax. The theory assumes investors to have rationale behaviour (third variable), seeking more wealth but no systematic preference for cash payments and stock appreciation. However, based on these assumptions, the authors disregarded the influence of the dividend policy on the price of the firm or its cost of capital.
In the MM theory, perfect certainty is defined as the investors’ behaviours towards the complete curtailment of the information about the future investment plans and future earnings and so on of the company. Miller and Modigliani (1961) showed effectively through their theory that in a perfect financial market, current stock price does not vary because of the changes in the future dividend policy.
This dividend irrelevance theory creates the base for investigation of the relationship between stock prices and dividends in the UK-Listed companies.The theory has received severe criticism due to unrealistic nature of assumptions considered by the authors in their theory. According to the past researchers, tax cannot be eliminated from the business where income taxes and transaction costs are the vital part of the business and firm’s cost of capital is always affected by the portion of retained earnings it offers to its shareholders (Villamil, 2002). However, Miller & Modigliani, (1961)theory can be used to examine what does all the factors does in shaping the association between the stock and dividend, which are considered irrelevant by these authors.
The subsequent theories have emerged out as response to the dividend irrelevance theory of the (Miller & Modigliani, 1961). It can be examined that Ghosh & Woolridge, (2008) in their research have pointed out towards the more representative theories are signalling theory, customer effect theory and agency cost theory and so on.
3.2.3.2 Signalling Effect Theory
Another theory highlighted in the literature is related with the signalling effect theory. Despite of the irrelevance theory of the dividends proposed, (Miller & Modigliani, 1961) have also argued on the signalling effects of the dividend. Irrelavnce theory shows no association between the dividend and stock prices. Miller & Modigliani (1961) offer details of their arguments and elaborate that top management of the company with the most of information about company’s stock prices, can use the dividend to forecast the earning of their business for the future period. Deeptee & Roshan, (2009) further confirm the signalling effect of dividends by highlighting the importance of the information symmetry in the business. According to them, those working in the business tend to have more information about the business and therefore, they can use the dividend as signallingmechanism to transmit information to the investors in the market or to its shareholders. The information about the present dividend can be used by the firms in changing the expectations of the investors about the business. By increasing the price of dividend payout ratio, firms tend to inform the existing and potential investors of the company the value of business (Deeptee & Roshan, 2009).
Literature has confirmed the importance of signalling theory in increasing and decreasing the stock prices of the business. It can be determined that signalling theory shows how the stock dividend paid reflects the company’s investment value and growth potential for the future periods. The growth or reduction trends in dividend ultimately alerts the investors about the positive or negative response of the stock prices to the dividends amount in the future market (Vieira & Raposo, 2007).
Dainelli et al., (2010 ) havecriticized the signalling effects of dividends by stating that it is assumed that most profitable companies tend to provide growth information about their business to increase stock prices and investors’ interests. However, this is not true in the practical world because firms with high profits may issue lower dividends to project inaccurate information either intentionally to commit financial fraud or to make investment of the funds into the other sources.Bini et al., (2010) in their research study have also confirmed, “Market is capable of controlling the production and use of information, concentrating it on the focal points of the agency relationship” (Dainelli et al., 2010, p.1). They added that use of doctored figures and ratios can be used to hide the actual performance of the business from the market participants.
Eriksson et al., (2012) in their research study have also substantiated the findings of the Bini et al., (2010). According to the authors, reported dividend values to the market are based on the random factors management take into account in increasing or decreasing the value based on the expectations to generate sufficient profits. Market participants are not able to realize and understand these random factors and their decisions are purely based on the information conveyed by the business management. Only firm’s expectations concerning their earning power can be transmited to the market participants. However, future market fluctuations can disregard these expectations and generate different trends.
Thus, the contrasting views discussed by the past authors in their research studies and theories direct the need to use Miller and Modigliani (1961) theory and signalling effect theory to examine the relationship between the dividend and stock prices of the UK listed companies in different business sectors. The information would help in investigating that whether the type of sector can lead to varied results in terms of relationship between these two variables or in shaping the signalling effects between these. After developing the theoretical framework of the current research, the next section of the literature critically reviews the relationships between dividends and common stock prices investigated in earlier the research studies.
3.3 Critical Review
3.3.1 The Relationships between Dividends and Common Stock Prices
Dhillon & Johnson, (1994)cited in the research study of Ali & Chowdhury, (2010), have tested the relationship between the dividend announcement and bond and stock prices of the firms listed in the New York Exchange. The research covered the period from January 1987 to December 1987. The tsuyd is based on one-year period only. The authors reported a positive and significant relationship between the research variables. They found that with an increase in dividend, stock prices of the firms also tend to show an increasing inclination. On the other hand, Ali & Chowdhury, (2010) themselves investigated the stock price reaction to the dividend announcement using the sample of Bangladeshi listed companies during 2009. The authors employed pooled-t test methodology in investigation the association. The results showed interesting facts in the observation period, when the authors found non-statisticallysignificant difference between the stock prices of the banks and their dividend announcement. The results reject the signalling effect theory due to the strong contribution of insider trading and some other market factors.
Another key research substantiating the research findings of the Dhillon & Johnson, (1994), it can be examined that Yoon & Starks, (1995) investigated the issues using another angle of relating investment opportunities, signalling and dividend announcement. The authors undertook the examination of the several factors in order to examine the change of dividend.The key assumption in assessing their results was related with the unknown attribute of the investment policy information. The hypothesis of signalling cash flow depicted similar results i.e. with the increase in dividend; firms tend to increase the stock prices’ of their firms.Jensen et al., (2010)argued in investigating such direct relationship between the stock prices of the firms and their dividends policies. They state that a decline in the corporation recognized dividend corresponds with a cut in the worth of the firm’s real options. Earnings recoilsubsequentto the dividend drop due to the savings that result as the firm allows growth options to expire. They added that when the firms’ reduce dividends earnings the investors are able to realise the lost value related with the forthcoming expiration of the growth opportunities in the market. In response to such reduction, they also tend to return their portion of investment.
In an earlier study by Ariff et al., (2000), the authors used different approach to test out the relationship between the chosen research variables. They used joint linear influence of payout ratio, dividend yield, price earnings ratio, leverage, earning per share and size to build up the scene for their research. The researchers composed the data from the three different Asian markets in Malaysia, Japan and Singapore about 16 years. All the six factors show high relativity in these three markets. Based on the findings, authors concluded that two-fifth of the change in stock price could be attributed to the changes occurred within the crucial factors in Japanese market. However, this result did not make sense in the markets of Malaysia and Singapore. Additionally, macroeconomic factors were more welcoming in these three markets, which did not consider the cross-sectional test. This meant the investors would prefer tentative information rather than basic factors.
Additionally, Boyd & Jagannathan, (1994) in their study examined the common stock prices around the ex-dividend dates. According to the authors, such price information normally contains the information about the mix of observations. The results confirmed that the marginal price drop out of the companies’ stock is not statistically different from the dividend amount. They concluded that for a long period, probably over the last several decades, one-for-one marginal price drop has been identified as an excellent or average rule of thumb in understanding the association between the dividends and market prices.
In another global study focusing on Pakistani listed corporations, Shahbaz et al., (2007)established the effects of dividends on common stock price of corporations that were listed on Lahore Stock Exchange. Author employed sample of 24 corporations for the period of one year from 2002 to 2003. Only the researchers in their study that depicted high stock turnover selected those stocks. Unlike previous studies, they used Cumulative Abnormal Return and Market-Adjusted Abnormal Return to deal with data. The results of their research were confirmatory with the Ali & Chowdhury, (2010) findings. They also reported that the effects of dividends on common stock price were not strong on Lahore Stock Exchange in the period under investigation (Shahbaz et al., 2007).Khan, (2012) in her research has also affirmed the findings of Shahbaz et al., (2007). She found that dividend irrelevance theory is of no worth in case of the chemical and pharmaceutical industry in Pakistan due to presence of association. However, they concluded that earning per share and stock dividend have negative insignificant relationship with the stock prices of the listed corporations in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry of Pakistan.
Furthermore, Dasilas & Leventis, (2011) investigated the reverse causation link by concentrating on the impacts of trading volume and stock price on dividend. The data sample used by the authors was covering the information from 2000 to 2004 financials. The research location under investigation was the Greek market in which dividend can be paid on annual period without tax. The study used Standard Event Study methodology. Dividend changes were calculated by naïve model and irregular returns were calculated by raw return model, market-adjust model and market model. The findings of the study concluded that dividend decrease could lead to increase in share prices (Dasilas and Leventis, 2011).
Hanlon and Slemrod (2009) further believe that dividend announcement is necessary due to the tax issue. These authors have confirmed the negative association between the prices of stock and dividend announcement. They believe that tax also influences the amount of dividend issued by the firm. Normally, when the tax of dividend is at a higher level, in comparisonto its capital gain, it could have negative influence on the investors(Hanlon and Slemrod, 2009). It is therefore identified as worthy to note down that in UK, the basic rate of tax is about 10% and higher-tax payers are required to pay 25% of the net dividend they receive (Piggott and Whalley, 2009).Investors, therefore, respondnegatively to the increased dividends amount.
3.4 Critical Summary of Literature Reviewed
Thus, from the comparison of the methodologies and findings of the past studies investigating the relationship between the stock prices and dividend policies of global corporations, mixed observations are viewed in determining the association. Some depicted positive significant association while other depicted negative significant association between the under investigation research variables. In contrary, some of the past studies revealed insignificant association between the research variables. These differences can be attributed to the differences in markets, regions, sample size, and the methods of measurement used by the researchers. The influence of market factors can also not be undermined in assessing the association between the research variables. It is worthy to notice that some researchers like (Campbell & Thompson, 2008) have concentrated on the impact of overvalued markets in their research study and its influence on the relationship. Market overvaluation raised suspicions for the authors as according to the basic rule, the stock prices should not be far away from the basic value. They also reported that stock prices respond to the market fluctuations and dividend declaration abruptly because soon after the period passing the dividends’ announcements, these values drop back to the original prices.
From the examination of the two key theories discussed in modern finance, i.e. signalling effect theory and MM Theory, it is not ony worthy to examine the association between the stock prices and dividend rather determination of the long-term signalling effects of the dividend policies on the stock prices of the UK listed corporations is also significant in order to provide the real picture of the relationship between them.Miller & Modigliani, (1961) and Bini et al., (2010) offered a set of great findings that could be applied over the data samples of the current research in order to obtain the results.
Thus, in spite of varying conclusions in the past studies, the literature reviewed critically points out towards the limited amount of research taking both the dividends and tax information into the consideration at the time of setting the stock prices. The absence of such focus may bring different results for the stock price in reality. It can be examined that stock price and dividends have varied relationships in different markets. Therefore, the selection of appropriate methodology can help in applying the theory on data sample of UK firms in the subsequent research chapter.
3.5 Conclusion
The chapter offered an overview of the basic definitions, classifications and importance of both the dividends and stock price (primarily common stock prices). The theoretical framework based on MM’s dividend irrelevance theory and signalling effect theory has provided a strong base for investigating the same in UK context to identify which theory UK listed firms in different sectors support. The chapter also examined the differences in results and methodologies of the past global studies investigating the relationship between the stock prices of the firms and their dividend values. From the analysis of such studies, it can be point out that there are few studies about the United Kingdom after 2008 when the taxation system of the country became more complicated and matured. Therefore, current research would help in highlighting how the firms in the current UK regulatory environment are performing and making better decisions on pricing stocks and investment. The findings of the current study would help in clarifying the issue.
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